Slippery Slope: One Mistake Won't Make You Unsuccessful

The slippery slope model is an argument that a particular decision will cause unintended consequences. Sometimes it is used as a form of fearmongering in which the probable consequences of a given action are exaggerated to scare the audience. The idea is that taking a particular action will result in you “slipping” down the “slope”, akin to tipping over the first domino in a long line. The chain of events can be positive or negative, and the model frequently finds it’s way into debates, policymaking, and ethical discussions to caution against a path since it would trigger unwanted consequences.

The outcome of a slippery slope is usually depicted as inevitable unless specific measures are taken to prevent it. It asserts that an initial action leads to an extreme result, but this is often not true. For instance, a recovering alcoholic could think “I must never drink again. Not anything small. If I drink something, I’ll want another. Before long, I’ll be throwing them down one after the other, and alcohol may end up killing me.” This is a good example of an actual slippery slope, such as smoking, alcohol, drugs, and bingeing behavior. But not every such argument is true. A disciplined dieter, for example, could probably have a sliver of cake on their birthday without slipping down unhealthy eating habits.

Every type of slippery slope you’ll encounter shares several characteristics: an acceptable starting point, a dangerous or unacceptable endpoint, and a transition between the starting and ending point that typically renders you unable to do anything to intervene. In reality, slippery slopes are rare and they are mostly exaggerations that we or others employ on us to trigger fear and keep us from a certain action. Real-life is more: (1) small actions rarely lead to big events, unless repeated consistently over time; (2) the transition between the start and end points does leave you with space and ability to interfere; (3) slippery slope arguments are most often unrealistic, and the claimed occurrences and possibilities of negative events are skewed into fantasy land; (4) the ones making the arguments typically get something out of it, and that’s a telltale sign—the flow of money, recognition, or power—that you are encountering a fearmongering attempt.

You might be surprised but, much like identifying slippery slope arguments used by others, you can look for the fallacy in your own, too. Consider the intervening factors that might alter the course you propose. If Julie eats that ice cream, will she really get addicted to ice cream and get morbidly obese, suffering an early death? Probably not. Instead of focusing on the consequences, focus on your argument’s points. It could be a psychological strategy employed by your brain to keep you from change. Make sure that the causal links your argument is based on genuinely exist. Solely because one thing happens after another does not mean the first caused the second.

Real life implications of slippery slopes and slippery slope arguments:

• Day-to-day arguments: “I don’t think it’s a good idea to lower the drinking age. Next thing we know, kids will get to drive before they reach 13.” and “The Trump administration is an attack on our liberties and the first step to a socialist conspiracy!”;

• Ethical debate: take euthanasia as an example: critics argue that legalizing voluntary euthanasia might result in an acceptance of involuntary euthanasia, whilst the proponents argue otherwise by proposing strict legislations;

• Law: free speech limitations: limiting hate speech can result in broader restrictions on controversial opinions, thus policymakers should use checks to ensure specificity and avoid overreach;

• Parenting: allowing kids more independence: as parents, we may worry that granting freedom, like when to go to bed, will result in a lack of discipline in our kids, but this is not necessarily true especially with thoughtful boundary-setting and gradual application;

• Technology: using AI to make decisions: critics argue that delegating minor decision-making to artificial intelligence will result in dependency and erode human judgment in the process, while simple safeguards can, in reality, keep this from happening;

• Health: skipping a workout: you might fear that skipping one workout will result in you abandoning your fitness journey entirely, but you have to take breaks and a failure to do so might actually trigger a worse, genuine slippery slope.

Slippery slopes can be valid and invalid. Valid slippery slopes, where the chain of events is logical and empirically sound, do exist. Here, they act as a cautionary tool. Fallacious slippery slopes, on the other hand, are weak, speculative, exaggerated, and impractical. These you might fall for and should watch out for. Here’s how: (1) demand evidence, seeking empirical support for the chain of events presented to you to see if the claim is true; (2) focus on outcomes, trying to identify the short- and long-term risks and merits rather than fearing speculative and unlikely outcomes; (3) reframe the discussion from “what might go wrong?” to “how could we manage potential risks?” and “what would need to be true for this decision to go well?”; (4) lastly, understand that you are biased against losses and uncertainty and have an inclination to avoid them, which may incline you toward believing fallacious messages.

How you might employ the slippery slope as a mental model: (1) assess causality, examining the evidence that links each step in the chain of events, avoiding speculative leaps; (2) quantify likelihood, assigning probability to each step to evaluate just how realistic each step genuinely is; (3) challenge assumptions that connect the steps, such as believing in unlikely outcomes or forms of magical thinking; (4) avoid alarmism, especially if presenting a valid slippery slope argument of your own; (5) propose safeguards to prevent the slippery slope from taking place, such as regulations, laws, rules, and specific actionable steps.

Thought-provoking insights. “A single step can shape your journey, but not all paths lead to doom.” recognize the potential for progress; every action does not end in disaster just because it’s one of the possibilities. “Slippery slopes are slippery because we fail to build friction.” introducing safeguards can give us grip and ways to prevent undesirable consequences. “Fear of the slope stifles progress.” caution is priceless, but believing unfounded slippery slope arguments halts beneficial innovations and/or reforms. Apply this lens whenever you are limited by a risk. Try it whenever there’s a barrier of caution between you and a process for progress.