Second-order Thinking: The Magic Of "And then what?”

Second-order thinking means looking beyond the immediate, obvious consequences (”first-order”) of a decision or action to consider long-term and less-apparent effects (”second-order”). It’s the art of asking “And then what?” repeatedly to uncover how decisions cascade and can trigger ripple effects. By taking into account second-order consequences, we can make better-informed decisions, anticipate unintended outcomes, and account for complexity in systems.

In simple terms, second-order thinking is thinking things through. Pushing our mind past the first step. People often stop at first-order thinking and are surprised when their decisions don’t stand the test of time. Consider the decision to eat a candy bar. What are the first-order consequences? Pleasure, great taste, a dollar or two. What are the second- and subsequent-order consequences? Here we can get creative: weight gain, binge-eating or unhealthy dietary behavior, wasted money and investment potential, and so forth.

Second-order thinking is among the most versatile thinking tools available. It can be applied to any problem and decision you are met with. For each consequence of a given action, ask “And then what?” to unmask the subsequent-order consequences. You can also use a temporal lens: “And what will the consequences be in 10 minutes? 10 hours? 10 days? 10 weeks? 10 months? 10 years?” The point is to assess both the immediate and the long-term consequences of your actions and choices, small and big. It’s a universal tool.

First-order thinking is fast and easy, second-order thinking is slower and more deliberate. You do not need to apply second-order thinking to everything, just as you do not need to invert your perspective on everything. But asking “And then what?” can inform and help you make better decisions in daily living. Extraordinary performance comes when you start seeing things others do not see. And few employ second-order thinking. A lot of bad decisions made were simply the second-order consequences that somebody missed. Just because things do not have an immediate payoff, does not mean that’s the case: you will just have to await the second- and subsequent-order consequences.

Real life implications of second-order thinking:

• Personal: consider the broader impact of decisions you make, such as eating unhealthy food to satisfy hunger—first-order consequences—that, over time, contributes to worse health—second-order consequences;

• Financial: ask how your financial decisions affect your long-term wealth, such as saving aggressively today—might be uncomfortable now, first-order—but building financial security tomorrow—compounds wealth, second-order;

• Business: evaluate how your market strategy and decisions impact your sales now—first-order—but also how they might affect brand value and long-term profitability—second-order;

• Relationships: think beyond immediate interactions and into long-term effects on connection, as canceling those plans might free up a few hours now—first-order—but deteriorate the bond—second-order;

• Career: assess how your choices affect your long-term development capabilities, as a high-paying job now—first-order—might turn out obsolete because it is in a declining industry—second-order;

• Education: consider the lasting effects of a given skill or degree, as one with a lower short-term payoff—first-order—can be promising in the near future—second-order;

• Product: analyze how your features are seen by users over time, because putting in those paywalls now may raise revenue—first-order—but reduce the loyalty and overall esteem people have for your product—second-order;

• Conflict: consider how immediate responses affect the long-term of relationships, since winning that argument might satisfy you now—first-order—but plunging into the discomfort and resolving conflict pays at large later—second-order.

How you might apply second-order thinking: (1) always ask “And then what?” after considering the immediate outcome to unveil the possible negative and/or positive consequences; (2) map the ripple effects from step one to assess the real impact of a decision; (3) apply temporal thinking to consider how short-term repercussions affect your long-term goals; (4) anticipate the potential negative consequences to create contingency plans; (5) practice second-order thinking regularly, especially in high-stakes decisions but also in simpler ones due to it’s versatility.

Thought-provoking insights. “The first step is often not the hardest but the shortest.” reflects how initial actions might not account for long-term consequences. “We don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are.” encourages you to step back to consider the broader impact before taking action. “Measure twice, cut once.” emphasizes evaluating situations with care to avoid future problems. “Today’s solutions are tomorrow’s problems.” warns against focusing on first-order effects without considering subsequent-order impacts. Adopt the thinking tool to your decisions, and don’t be scared to keep asking “And then what?” Third-order, fourth-order, fifth-order…

Grab the template and put second-order thinking into action today.

Questions to reflect on:

1. How often do I consider the long-term consequences of my actions?

2. How can and do I anticipate and mitigate unintended consequences?

3. In what ways can a small change impact my current work or personal life in the future?

4. How can I use second-order thinking to make better strategic decisions?

5. How do I balance short-term gains and long-term rewards in my processes?

Quotes to make your head spin:

1. "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard Feynman, physicist.

2. "It is not enough to be busy; so are the ants. The question is: What are we busy about?" - Henry David Thoreau, philosopher and writer.

3. "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Daniel J. Boorstin, historian.

Example use cases:

1. Personal finance: when considering an investment, employ second-order thinking by evaluating not just the immediate return but the long-term impact on your financial health, potential market shifts, and economy cycles.

2. Public policy: policymakers have to use second-order thinking when formulating new laws. They must consider not only the direct effects but the broader societal impact for a holistic viewpoint, as there is always potential for unforeseen consequences.

3. Healthcare: second-order thinking helps weigh the long-term effects of treatment plans. Patient adherence, potential side effects, and the overall impact on quality of life have to be taken into account.

4. Environment: second-order thinking is indispensable in environmental conservation. Introducing a new species to an ecosystem, for example, requires considering the cascading effects on local flora and fauna and the long-term ecological balance.