Scientific Method: Now Where's Your Evidence?

The scientific method is a standard of acquiring knowledge that has been used since the 17th century. The method includes careful observation and rigorous skepticism in search of an objective finding. It means testing a hypothesis through experimenting and statistical analyses, and adjusting or discarding it based on the results. Although applications vary between fields, the process is alike. And while it’s commonly presented as a fixed sequence of steps, it’s more a set of principles.

The discovery of the scientific method is what marked the onset of the Scientific Revolution itself. It changed the way science was practiced; a boundary was drawn between science that can be proved and pseudoscience that is based solely on observation or horse sense. Observations have to be proved by solid evidence and experiment. Thus a generalized framework for conducting science made building on top of and unifying previous knowledge possible. Form a hypothesis. Test it. Analyze the results. Rinse and repeat the cycle. Science!

At the core is an iterative cycle of observation, questioning, hypothesizing, experimentation, and analysis to build reliable explanations for observed phenomena. It encourages relying on observable and measurable evidence, on testing and disproving hypotheses in an objective manner, in lieu of forming unbased conclusions. First you guess. The audience laughs. Then you compute the consequences of the guess to see what is right and what is wrong. Later, we compare the simulation to nature or the experiment to experience to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. The last statement is the fundamental law that makes science possible. It does not matter how beautiful the guess or smart the guesser is.

If you believe in science, this mental model is for you. It’s the heartbeat of invention and revolution. Without it, you would not be reading this because computers would likely not have been discovered. The point is to test what you do, take notes on the effects and possible causes, and repeat this until you get it down to a science. You can apply it on anything from testing the effectiveness of a new product design to analyzing customer feedback and implementing changes to improve your services. Use it as a framework to evaluate claims, to distinguish evidence-based conclusions from mere speculation. Systematically address theoretical challenges. The more math you install into the world, the less uncertain and unpredictable it becomes to you.

A step-by-step overview: (1) notice a phenomenon, such as that plants grow faster in sunlight than in shade; (2) ask a specific question based on the observation, “Does the intensity of sunlight alter the growth of plants?”; (3) form a hypothesis, a clear and testable prediction about the relationship between variables, “If the intensity of light increases, plant growth will also increase.”; (4) experiment to test the hypothesis, measuring the plant’s growth rate in the shade and sunlight while keeping the conditions like soil type and watering rate stable; (5) collect quantitative—numbers, statistics—and qualitative—descriptive, observational—data; (6) analyze whether the data supports or refutes the hypothesis, summarizing findings and forming a conclusion; (7) repeat the experiment to confirm the results and ensure reliability; (8) if repeat experiments support a hypothesis across contexts, you may form a scientific theory, though you probably won’t need this step.

Real life applications of the scientific method:

• Medicine: developing a new drug: observe that patients with a condition lack a certain protein; hypothesize that administering the protein will improve their health; conduct clinical trials to prove the hypothesis and ensure that the treatment is safe and effective;

• Environment: investigating climate change: observe that global temperatures are rising; hypothesize that greenhouse gas emissions are a primary cause; experiment using computer models to simulate temperature changes under different emission scenarios;

• Engineering: improving battery efficiency: hypothesize that changing the electrode materials will increase energy storage; experiment by testing different materials under controlled conditions; use the collected data to inform yourself about designing well-performing batteries;

• Social science: on studying behavior: observe that people are using credit cards more than cash; hypothesize that credit card usage reduces the perceived pain of spending; track spending habits in controlled environments to prove or disprove your calculated guess;

• Education: testing teaching methods: active learning supposedly results in better test scores than passive lectures; experiment by testing two groups after teaching them utilizing different teaching methods.

How you might use the scientific method as a thinking tool: (1) apply it to solve problems and make decisions by following a data-driven approach in lieu of a speculative alternative; (2) seek to see whether the data you are consuming and/or using as research is grounded in evidence and as unbiased as possible; (3) realize that results in controlled settings don’t always apply to real-world scenarios, so take them with a grain of salt even if the evidence is solid. Here’s a simple productivity app example: (1) observe the users’ claim that the app improves their focus; (2) question the results, “Does the app significantly improve productivity compared to not using it?”; (3) make a calculated guess, “Using the app increases productivity by 10 percent.”; (4) experiment by, say, using the app for one week and tracking performance, and then not using the app, tracking completed tasks for the period; (5) quantify the task completion rate and compare results between the weeks; (6) determine whether the app actually improves your productivity.

Thought-provoking insights. “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” just because observed results are not out there does not mean a phenomenon does not exist—it might be a limitation of methods. “Theories are tools, not truths.” science evolves over time and nothing is really “true” forever. “Question everything, especially your own assumptions.” this is at the core of the scientific method, emphasizing skepticism and critical evaluation. Follow in the trail of Galileo. Use observations and experiments. Challenge the prevailing belief. Build reliable knowledge. Indulge in guesswork less.

Questions to reflect on:

1. How can I clearly define the problem or question I want to investigate?

2. What can I do to ensure my experiments and research are as objective, controlled, and impartial as possible?

3. How can I replicate my processes to verify the results of my methods and ensure reliability?

4. What about my findings is limited and how do I communicate that to others?

5. How can I analyze data in my life to draw meaningful conclusions?

Quotes that encompass the concept:

1. "The scientific method is the way to truth in the modern world." - Kary Mullis, American biochemist.

2. "Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge." - Carl Sagan, American astronomer.

3. "The scientific method is a powerful way of thinking about the world." - Richard Feynman, American theoretical physicist.

4. "The great tragedy of science is the laying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact." - Thomas Huxley, English biologist.

Example use cases:

1. Medical research: scientists use the scientific method to investigate new treatments and comprehend diseases. They form hypothesis, conduct experiments, and draw conclusions to advance medical know-how. Jonas Salk used the scientific method to develop the polio vaccine by hypothesizing that an inactivated virus could stimulate immunity.

2. Environmental studies: researchers use the method to study environmental issues like climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. James Hansen used the method to study global warming by analyzing long-term temperature data and devising climate models, presenting evidence of human impact on the climate.

3. Psychology: human behavior studies and mental processes are studied using the method. Cognitive functions, emotions, and social interactions have thus been drilled down to the core. B.F. Skinner used the scientific method to study behaviorism by conducting experiments on operant conditioning and analyzing the effects of reinforcement on behavior.

4. Education: academics use the scientific method to assess teaching and educational modes to improve student outcomes. John Hattie used the scientific method to conduct meta-analyses of education research, finding elements that significantly impact student learning and achievement.