Confirmation Bias: Don't Believe What You Want To Believe

The confirmation bias is our underlying tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to information that fits our existing beliefs. We will search for it, interpret it, and recall it in a way that confirms what we think and value. People display this by selecting what supports them, ignoring contrary information, and when they think vague evidence reinforces their existing beliefs.

It manifests first in how we look for information. We always try to confirm the hypothesis we have set out for. Rather than searching through all the relevant evidence, we will phrase questions that confirm what we want the outcome to be. Seeking out contradictory evidence will be hard, and even if it is there, we will likely filter it out. Our brains won’t tell us about this entire process, either. It’ll happen unconsciously.

The confirmation bias results in worse decision-making since it distorts how we search for and approach information from which we draw evidence. Just because something aligns with how we think, does not mean it is right. The more entrenched we become in our beliefs, the more trapped we become in a so-called echo chamber. We feed the fire. We surround ourselves with others who believe the same things. They kindle the flame. We then consume media that confirms what we think, as well. Entire social movements have been started this way.

The bias is pervasive in making us selective about information. You and I first pay attention only to what confirms existing notions while disregarding everything contradictory. Subsequently, the ambiguous information that is neither-sided is perceived to be on our side, and memories that confirm our beliefs surface while disconfirming ones are neglected. We then reinforce the effect by surrounding ourselves with like-minded individuals. It’s a vicious loop: confirm existing beliefs, existing beliefs strengthen, confirm them again, and so on.

Though it isn’t entirely irrational. The confirmation bias saves our precious cognitive resources by sticking to what is known and accepted; it is mentally easier to process information that fits our worldview rather than reevaluating and updating our beliefs. There is a comfort that comes from confirming prevailing notions—the opposite is cognitive dissonance, which is uncomfortable, hence we avoid it. Aligning with the group also feels great and accepting opposing views can even appear like we’re betraying our community.

Real life implications of confirmation bias:

• Business: an entrepreneur might ignore customer complaints that contradict what they believe led to a product’s success; overcome this by actively seeking negative feedback when developing products and services or making high-stakes decisions;

• Research: an academic might concentrate on data that supports their initial hypothesis while disregarding anomalies; employ double-blind or blind methodologies to minimize your personal influence and ensure your research is objective;

• Health: you might disagree with your doctor’s explanations, convinced that you are ill based on symptoms that align with your beliefs and knowledge about given sicknesses; consult multiple experts to be sure rather than relying on your undue assumptions;

• Investments: you might hold onto a failing stock believing it will eventually recover, ignoring obvious signs to sell and exit; set a predefined criteria for investment decisions to avoid emotional decisions when it comes to finance;

• Personal: you might be anchored on a limiting belief like “I’m not creative” and avoid evidence that challenges this notion; actively seek out experiences that contradict these self-imposed limitations, since they are mostly fantasies that hold you back for no reason whatsoever.

How you might use confirmation bias as a mental model: (1) pause, reflect, and identify whether you are disproportionately valuing one side of the evidence and perhaps the side that confirms what you already know; (2) seek disconfirming evidence that contradicts your existing assumptions and challenges the evidence you have already gathered; (3) treat the decision-making process like science, regarding beliefs like hypotheses which you have to test rigorously against a variety of datapoints; (4) take a few perspectives, the viewpoints of those who might disagree to see where they are coming from; (5) diversify your inputs, looking into sources you normally would not explore to counteract echo chambers, perhaps seeking out an expert or somebody who could critique your notions.

Thought-provoking insights. “It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.” and “When you are surrounded by people who share the same set of assumptions, you start to think that’s reality.” tell us how critical it is to not stick to our guns when it comes to interpreting information: challenge what you think. “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance. It is the illusion of knowledge.” Stephen Hawking wisely reminds us how thinking we know is often far from reality. Don’t believe what you believe. Think twice.

Questions to reflect on:

1. How do my personal assumptions influence how I interpret information?

2. How can I ensure I'm taking multiple viewpoints before forming an opinion?

3. What are the potential consequences of relying on data that confirms what I already believe?

4. How can I encourage open-mindedness and critical thinking in others?

5. What strategies can I use to reduce the impact of confirmation bias in my day-to-day living?

Quotes that confirm your bias:

1. "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle, Greek philosopher.

2. "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." - Anais Nin, French-Cuban-American diarist and essayist.

3. "Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrumb them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in." - Isaac Asimov, American writer and professor of biochemistry.

4. "It is not what we don't know that gets us into trouble. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain, American writer.

Example use cases:

1. Medical diagnoses: doctors that are more aware of confirmation bias will stop concentrating solely on symptoms that fit an initial diagnosis to ensure they consider all possible explanations, reducing the risk of misdiagnosis.

2. Science: researchers design studies that minimize confirmation bias by using randomized controlled trials, double-blind placebos, and peer reviews to ensure their findings are as objective and reliable as possible.

3. Investing: investors stymie confirmation bias by considering diverse sources of information and conducting thorough analyses. This enables more informed decision-making based on a balanced view of the market.

4. Personal relationships: you might use awareness of confirmation bias to improve communication, knowing that to consider your partner's perspective and avoid jumping to conclusions might take some conscious effort.