Reversible VS Irreversible Decisions: When You Should Think Slow

When we have to make a decision, the first question is whether it should be made fast or slow. The reversibility of that decision is a reliable way to assess whether it is worth to gather as much information as possible, or to make it quickly with partial information. Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, thinks of them as one-way and two-way doors. Walk through a one-way door, and we cannot come back. It is irreversible. With two-way doors, we can go through, check out what’s inside, and come back to where we began if we so desire.

Every decision falls somewhere on the continuum between reversible and irreversible. You can tell where it is on the spectrum by figuring out how much it would cost to undo. The higher the cost to undo, the less reversible it is. Once you learn to see decisions this way, your mindset about their implicit and explicit costs changes. The general rule: make reversible decisions fast, make irreversible decisions slow. Your biggest risk with reversible decisions is having them drag on. The cost to acquire information is not worth the payoff. Decide. The biggest risk with irreversible ones is making the wrong choice. The cost to gather information is well worth it. Research.

The future is unpredictable, and sometimes you can handle the uncertainty. Other times, you want to minimize uncertainty as much as possible. You won’t marry someone after a first date, but you might go to a restaurant which you heard serves great food online. Typically, when you: (1) stop gathering useful information, (2) area about to lose a meaningful opportunity, or (3) know what to do, you can safely make the decision. Fast is not always reckless. Reversible decisions do not demand the attention irreversible counterparts do. Jeff Bezos considers 70 percent certainty as his cut-off. That means acting when he has 70 percent of the required information, rather than waiting. Often, deciding faster and course-correcting is much more effective than delaying.

Plus, more information doesn’t necessarily dictate more accuracy. Decision-making under uncertainty can, at times, be more effective. You don’t need to know everything to assess the situation, even about complex phenomena like disease. In medicine, as in other areas, more data does not mean better outcomes. A man might arrive at a hospital with chest pains. There is no immediate threat to his life, but his lifestyle seems threatening. The conclusion is that he should probably get on a diet because he is at risk of a chronic heart condition. Suppose a doctor looked at all the available information, the man would have been admitted to the hospital. In reality, there is no emergency. What screws up doctors is taking too much information into account.

The core aspects of reversible and irreversible decisions:

Reversible decisions are flexible, can be revisited and adjusted. They are typically associated with lower stakes and consequences. These should be executed on fast, since deliberation is not worth the time, effort, and resources due to their non-permanent nature. Examples: trying a hobby, testing a prototype, subscribing to a monthly service, choosing where to have lunch. The advantages are lower stress and risk, encouraging experimentation and agility.

Irreversible decisions are permanent, and cannot be undone or require great effort to be. They often carry higher risks, stakes, and repercussions that are significant. These demand careful deliberation, since the biggest risk is making the wrong choice, and evaluating and research are risk-free activities. Examples: marriage, choosing whether and when to have children, selling a company, deploying a major organizational change, undergoing surgery. The upsides of these are the emphasis on thoughtful, well-planned decision-making, and the ability to have a lasting impact.

Real life implications of reversible versus irreversible decisions:

• Business: reversible decisions include a new pricing strategy or marketing campaign, whilst expanding into an international market which requires substantial monetary and legal investment is irreversible;

• Personal: investing in stocks is reversible, but purchasing a home or taking out a very large loan is irreversible;

• Education: enrolling in a short-term online course is reversible, but pursuing a degree program requiring years of commitment to study and financial costs is not;

• Relationships: deciding to date somebody is reversible, yet choosing to marry that person or to have children with them is not;

• Health: a non-invasive treatment plan is reversible, but opting to have a major surgery can be a permanent medical procedure.

How you might employ reversible versus irreversible decisions as a mental model: (1) understand the nature of the decision, figuring out whether the choice can be revisited or adjusted later; (2) allocate your resources accordingly, spending less time on reversible decisions to maintain momentum, more thought on irreversible decisions to minimize risk and regret; (3) mitigate risks for irreversible decisions, identifying potential failure points and planning contingencies—like prototype testing before the launch of a product; (4) act quickly for reversible decisions, as the consequences are minor or easily mendable; (5) convert irreversible decisions to reversible ones if doable, such as a trial contract instead of a full-time hire. Pro tips: (1) focus on action over perfection for reversible decisions; (2) rigorously plan for irreversible decisions; (3) integrate feedback into reversible decisions, like minimum-viable product launches to assess demand and pivot; (4) communicate the reversible-irreversible decision dichotomy to your team to help them decide better, faster.

Thought-provoking insights. “Most decisions are reversible if approached creatively.” renting instead of buying, for instance, can provide flexibility while maintaining some of the benefits of ownership. “A reversible decision made too slowly can have the same cost as an irreversible one.” missing a business opportunity due to prolonged delay is a textbook case, marking why you have to make reversible choices fast. “Irreversible decisions define the path, but reversible ones shape the journey.” for instance, choosing a career versus choosing the specific project or role within that career. View your decisions through this lens to see whether it is worth it to keep thinking. Maybe it’s time to just take the plunge.

Grab the template and find which decision you are dealing with.