Unknown Unknowns: Nightmare Energy Of The Universe

Known knowns are things we are aware of and understand. Knowledge that we have identified we have. Known unknowns are things we are aware of but do not understand. Gaps in our knowledge we have identified to have. Unknown unknowns are things we are neither aware of or understand. These are our blind spots. We have not identified the knowledge we do not have. In other words, there are things we know we know, things we know we don’t know, and things we do not know we do not know. Often the unknown unknowns result in the biggest impacts, positive and negative.

The known knowns are the most comfortable area for people. This contains the knowledge we possess and are aware of, such as our route to work and how to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. The known unknowns are less comfortable. These are the things we know we lack knowledge in. For most of us, this might be molecular biology or which wire to cut when defusing a bomb. The unknown knowns are an awkward in-between, as it contains things we know but are not necessarily aware of. Intuitive or tactical knowledge, or a new approach we have in mind but have no put forth to the team. And the unknown unknowns are the deadly terrain. We’re not even wary that we don’t know. Tools that have yet to be discovered, chance events like hurricanes. Blind spots.

The idea is that we have to mitigate the risks of and handle unknown unknowns as smoothly as possible. Bringing them into our awareness is the first, critical step. They are unpredictable by nature, and cannot be anticipated based on existing knowledge or patterns. Unknown unknowns trigger fundamental paradigm shifts or crises. Examples: the emergence of the internet in the 20th century that revolutionized global communication in unanticipated proportion; the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted global systems, despite the advanced medical field with capability to predict and prevent disease outbreaks; a competitor in business launching a disruptive innovation nobody expected.

Unknown unknowns are simply part of the nature of complex systems. When there are many interdependent components, anticipating every interaction is either impossible or impractical. Human minds concentrate on immediate, known variables, and neglect broader, unknown possibilities. Unknown unknowns are of the opposite nature: arising from new technologies, cultural shifts, environmental changes, something outside the boundaries of our established paradigms. Examples, again: financial crises that result from unforeseen feedback loops in economic systems; the rise of artificial intelligence and the unknown social and ethical challenges; early automobile manufacturers who couldn’t foresee how impactful the use of fossil fuels on the environment would be.

Real life implications of unknown unknowns:

• Business: companies often face disruptive innovations that render existing business models obsolete, such as Kodak’s failure to adapt to digital photography, so monitoring emerging technologies to identify potential disruptions early on is key;

• Risk: insurance companies build models of catastrophe to estimate risks of events like natural disasters, and you can form similar probabilistic models to prepare for extreme events;

• Science: the discovery of antibiotics by Alexander Fleming was an unknown unknown that revolutionized medicine, and we put ourselves and others at better odds of such innovation by emphasizing openness and experimentation;

• Personal: major life changes, like unexpected career shifts, can open unforeseen opportunities to us, so staying adaptable and embracing change ensures we are at the forefront to seize such possibilities.

How you might employ unknown unknowns as a mental model: (1) adopt a humble mindset, recognizing what the limits of your knowledge are, as this makes you more open to new information and flexible in your decisions; (2) stress-test assumptions, continuously challenging core assumptions about how systems function; (3) build systems that can withstand unexpected shocks, involving redundancy, flexibility, and adaptability; (4) encourage cross-disciplinary thinking, as unknown unknowns often emerge at the intersection of fields; (5) stay curious, since this will reduce the range of unknown unknowns over time as you develop your skills and knowledge. The advantage of considering unknown unknowns is the potential for innovation while mitigating risk, complacency, and overconfidence. But the challenge is that they cannot be fully anticipated or avoided by nature, so don’t spend too much time planning for these else you might become indecisive.

Thought-provoking insights. “It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain emphasizing the dangers of misplaced confidence for you; do be sure to question your assumptions, regularly. “We don’t see things as they are; we see them as we are.” highlights the role of perception in what we consider known. “Prepare for the unexpected.” is a simple, yet profound reminder to stay resilient and adaptable. While we cannot eliminate unknown unknowns, we can equip ourselves with a mindset to better handle them. Stay curious and open to change, and you’ll thrive when they inevitably emerge.