Frequency Illusion: The Odd Sense Of Popularity

The frequency illusion or Baader Meinhof problem is a cognitive bias in which we recognize a word, concept, or phenomenon more frequently after recently becoming aware of it. The name was coined by Terry Mullen in a 1994 letter to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. It describes how, after mentioning the name of the German terrorist group Baader Meinhof once, he kept noticing it. It lead to other readers sharing the same experience and the phenomenon quickly gained traction.

Several possible causes behind the illusion have been put forth, the consensus being an attention-related cognitive bias. The primary cause is selective attention: the process of selecting and focusing on particular objects while ignoring distractions. This means people have the unconscious ability to filter for what they are focusing on. It is always at play when the Baader Meinhof phenomenon occurs: the person’s focus is directed on the information the person is searching for, and their experience is that the stimuli is more frequent than it is in reality. The tendency is further strengthened by the confirmation bias: the inclination to seek evidence that confirms our existing beliefs or hypotheses, while overlooking evidence to the contrary.

The problem with the frequency illusion is that it strongly sways problem-solving and decision-making. It makes us discount rarer causes or events, enforcing us to attribute our perception based on what we are aware of. This is especially bad in fields like medicine where one overlooked event can be life-and-death. Essentially, the bias makes us process information in terms of frequency, in lieu of single-event probability. This is the way human cognition evolved, but it can lead to errors in decision-making and risk-taking. It’s why, when we just learned something or got a new tattoo, we start seeing that concept or similar ink everywhere.

A place we run into the frequency illusion is in linguistics. The man who coined the term was a linguist. It also seeps into medicine and healthcare. The illusion can help doctors, radiologists, and medical professionals detect disease. Rare diseases can be overlooked by those in the medical field due to an unfamiliarity with the condition at hand. For instance, during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, doctors worldwide saw the toes of patients discolor and would conclude that it was due to COVID-19 due to concurrent timing. The reality was that it was a misinterpretation fueled by the frequency illusion, present only in rare cases.

Real life implications of the frequency illusion:

• Education: a teacher introducing new vocabulary might encourage students to look for it in books or conversations, reinforcing the concept through natural occurrences;

• Self-improvement: when we are trying to adopt healthier habits like nutrition or exercise, we might start noticing gyms and healthy food alternatives more often, and we should use this increased awareness to remain motivated;

• Data: analysts should be cautious not to allow the Baader Meinhof phenomenon skew their interpretation of trends, mistaking heightened awareness for genuine growth or decline;

• Business: in customer service, understanding this phenomenon can aid us in identifying when potential customers are overemphasizing rare complaints due to selective attention;

• Mental: anxiety sufferers often misinterpret the frequency of negative stimuli, such as dangers or perceived threats, and awareness of this bias can help them rationalize and reduce stress;

• Day-to-day experiences: after buying a new car, you suddenly notice the same make and model everywhere, as your brain prioritizes identifying similar cars since that is now relevant to you;

• Learning: after encountering a new concept in a book or class, you see it referenced in seemingly unrelated contexts, as heightened cognitive awareness makes the concept feel omnipresent;

• Marketing: after seeing an ad for a product, you may start noticing it in stores, on shelves, online, or even in casual conversation, as marketing primes your awareness with the product or service.

How you can mitigate the negative effects of the Baader Meinhof problem: (1) cultivate awareness, realizing that increased noticing does not translate to increased prevalence; (2) seek objective data, validating patterns with empirical evidence instead of relying solely on subjective perception; (3) diversify focus, broadening your attention not to over-focus on a single concept; (4) practice mindfulness, as staying grounded in the present will reduce cognitive bias. Specific ways to leverage the phenomenon: (1, skill development) focus your attention deliberately, actively looking for applications or examples of what you just learned in your environment, serving as environmental repetition; (2, decision-making) mitigate bias by recognizing when selective attention is skewing your perception, asking “Am I noticing this more now that I’m more aware of it or because it is genuinely more frequent?”; (3, marketing) make priming campaigns and content that acts as a trigger for customers to notice your product in the future; (4, business) deliver consistent messaging across multiple channels to perpetuate your brand, making it appear omnipresent to potential customers; (5, creativity) use the phenomenon to connect even seemingly unrelated ideas, as focusing on a theme forces your brain to seek examples and connections.

Thought-provoking insights. “What you focus on expands.” is a popular saying that aligns with the phenomenon, reflecting the brain’s natural tendency to prioritize what’s top of mind. “The observer influences the observed.” is rooted in quantum physics, but metaphorically applies here as our attention alters how we perceive the world. Self-fulfilling prophecies are keystone examples of the Baader Meinhof problem, where focusing on something amplifies its perceived reality. Distinguish patterns from illusions. Do not fall for it. Just because it appears more frequent, does not mean it is more frequent.