Cynefin Framework: How To Choose The Best Course Of Action
“An ocean traveler has even more vividly the impression that the ocean is made of waves than that it is made of water.” ― Arthur S. Eddington
THINKING TOOL
The cynefin framework is an aid for decision-making. Created in 1999 by Dave Snowden, it has been described as a “sense-making device”. Cynefin helps us categorize decisions into five contexts: clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, or confusion. These assist us in making sense of the problem and our own and others’ behavior. The word cynefin comes from the Welsh word for habitat. That is the idea of cynefin: to offer decision-makers a new perspective, a sense of place, a habitat, from which to view their perceptions.
Different situations demand different responses. The cynefin is there to help you make a decision appropriate for the situation you’re dealing with. The crux is to identify which domain you are in and then to choose the appropriate mode of action based on it’s characteristics. By having situational awareness as it is called, you can approach different types of problems more accurately and improve your strategy. The five domains are as follows.
Clear: a stable and well-known environment. Cause-and-effect relationships are relatively predictable. Solutions are self-evident and widely agreed upon. Like manufacturing a standard product with an established assembly line or filing taxes using predetermined rules. Complicated: more variables and interactions than the clear domain. Cause-and-effect relationships require analysis and/or expertise to be understood. There are multiple right answers. This could be diagnosing a mechanical failure in a car or airplane or designing a new software architecture.
Complex: there is no clear cause-and-effect, and patterns emerge over time. Typically prerequisites trial, error, and iteration. Solutions cannot be predicted but can be discovered via experimentation. These include startups that cannot predict market responses but can test minimal-viable products, and social change movements where no single action dictates success. Chaotic: no clear pattern or cause-and-effect relationship. Crisis situations where action is often required immediately. Short-term priority is to stabilize and get back to the long-term strategy. Included are natural disasters where emergent action is needed to save lives and cybersecurity breaches where rapid responses are necessary before analyzing causes.
The last one is disorder: the decision-maker—you—does not yet understand the problem. That is, the nature of the situation is unclear. You do not yet know which of the four domains best fits the situation. Here we stop and break down the situation into one of the four domains above. Jumping to conclusions before understanding the problem can be deadly. Treating a complex problem as a simple one can lead to disaster. This might manifest as a leader taking over a failing company without clear insight into the problems or a policy-maker dealing with emerging technology. It’s sometimes called the confusion domain for a reason.
Real life implications of the cynefin framework:
Business: clear: automating routine tasks in a factory; complicated: designing a corporate restructuring plan; complex: developing new business models for an uncertain market; chaotic: responding to a sudden market collapse;
Health: clear: administering vaccines with predetermined protocols; complicated: diagnosing a rare disease requiring expert knowledge; complex: managing a public health crisis where solutions emerge over time; chaotic: an emergency trauma response;
Policy: clear: routine administrative tasks like tax collection; complicated: infrastructure projects requiring expert planning; complex: social policies where human behavior affects outcomes unpredictably; chaotic: disaster response to earthquakes or pandemics.
How you might use the cynefin framework as a thinking tool: (1) recognize what domain you are in, since not all problems are the same and matching the solution to the issue is the essence of the cynefin framework; (2) avoid one-size-fits-all thinking, as best practices do not fit everywhere; (3) encourage adaptability, as complex environments often work best with fast action and course-correction rather than fixed, rigid, slow plans; (4) use it to guide leadership, navigating between different domains—in a crisis, a leader has to be decisive and quick on their feet, whilst in a clear situation, a leader should optimize efficiency.
The cynefin framework helps stymie misapplied solutions. Different problems call for different implementations. Ensure that best practices are used where they are truly best. Use adaptive strategies where uncertainty reigns. Categorize the situation first. Solve it next. You can also view the domains differently. Clear is the known knowns: understand the situation, categorize it, and respond via a best-practice solution. Complicated is the domain of known unknowns: get an expert to assess the situation, investigate possible options, and choose a course of action. Complex is the unknown unknowns area: experiment until you understand the issue, moving it to the complicated domain where you then deal with it. The crux of the matter: different kinds of situations and problems require different kinds of responses.