Winner's And Loser's Games: Where Are You Playing?

“Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armour yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you.” ― George R.R. Martin

MENTAL MODEL

Stormtrooper minifigure walking on the sand
Stormtrooper minifigure walking on the sand

There are two kinds of games in life: winner’s and loser’s games. You might be playing the wrong game. The author Simon Ramo broke the difference down between amateur and professional tennis. Amateur tennis is a loser’s game: you win by avoiding errors and hoping your opponent makes them. Professional tennis is a winner’s game: you win by hitting incredible shots and hoping your opponent does not. In life, you have to know what kind of game you’re playing. Maybe it’s better to keep it simple and avoid errors. Or, perhaps you are at a time when you can get aggressive and hit perfect shots.

Note that the name of the game can be misleading. Playing a winner’s game does not make you a winner, nor does playing the loser’s game make you a loser. They are simply models for approaching things. The fact is, most games in life are loser’s games. You don’t get rewarded for magnificent shots. You get paid for consistently avoiding errors. It isn’t sexy, but the simple solution makes you win the majority of the time: keep showing up and avoiding mistakes. Its not about grueling, three-hour lifting sessions. That won’t make you fit and muscular: you will just fatigue and injure yourself. Instead, the results boil down to half-hour, consistent sessions that you can recover from and stick to for a while.

The idea is that it does not matter how brilliant you are if your foundational assumptions are wrong. Without a strong base, the skyscraper on top collapses. Your base is understanding what kind of game you are playing. Winner’s games are where the outcome is determined by the skill, decisions, and execution of the player. Success means outplaying the competition. Loser’s games are where outcomes are determined by avoiding mistakes. The environment, randomness, or system itself dominates the outcome. You succeed in winner’s games by making superior movies: chess, sprinting, professional tennis, high-skill entrepreneurship. The loser’s game is won by avoiding bad moves: long-term investing, amateur tennis, bureaucracy, risk management.

Super Mario figurine on brown surface
Super Mario figurine on brown surface

Real-world examples of winner’s and loser’s games:

  • Business: a startup in an emerging industry where innovation, strategy, and agile execution create a massive upside is playing the winner’s game. A large corporation in a saturated market where the key is surviving by avoiding missteps is playing the loser’s game.

  • Investing: active traders think they’re playing a winner’s game, but most investors do better treating the stock market as a loser’s game. Avoiding high-risk moves, keeping fees low, and letting compounding do the trick works in their favor.

  • Sports: chess, sprinting, and basketball at the elite level are winner’s games — where mastery and proactive decision-making dominates. Amateur golf or tennis are loser’s games — where most matches are decided by errors instead of brilliant plays.

  • Personal Development: mastery-based skills like playing an instrument, public speaking, or coding are winner’s games — success comes from years of practice. Health and longevity are loser’s games — where avoiding destructive habits (e.g. poor diet, no exercise, bad sleep quality, smoking or drinking) has a greater impact than the “perfect” routine.

How you can use winner’s and loser’s games as a mental model: (1) identify the game — figure out whether success is based on making great moves or avoiding big mistakes; (2) adjust your strategy — if it’s a winner’s game, focus on skill-building and bold moves and optimize for the best possible outcome, if it’s a loser’s game, focus on consistency and minimizing risks and think in defense instead of offense; (3) the game can change — what starts as a winner’s game can become a loser’s game if competition intensifies, so stay flexible; (4) different opponent, different tactic — you cannot beat every rival playing the game the same way, so stay on top of the game you are playing, always.