Sturgeon's Law: 90 Percent Of Anything Is Dumb

Sturgeon’s law is simple. 90 percent of anything is crap. It was coined by American author and critic Theodore Sturgeon. The inspiration was that, while science fiction has been derided for its low quality by critics, most work in other fields is low-quality too. Sturgeon’s fiction works were no different. 90 percent crap. “Eureka! ninety-percent of everything is crud. All things—cars, books, cheeses, hairstyles, people, and pins are, to the expert and discerning eye, crud, except for the acceptable tithe which we each happen to like.”

Similar adages were put forth by other creators. Benjamin Disraeli noted, “Nine-tenths of existing books are nonsense, and the clever books are refutation of that nonsense.” A 2009 paper in the Lancet estimated that over 85 percent of health and medicine research is wasted. In 2013, Daniel Dennett writes, “whether you are talking of physics, chemistry, evolutionary psychology, sociology, medicine—you name it—rock music, country western. 90 percent of everything is crap.” Most of the things you will encounter—be it creative work or scientific research—is going to be low quality and value.

While the law sounds humorous, cynical, and even childish, it carries a profound message. Any large body of work has a big variability between quality and quantity. High volume, low quality. The core idea: in any field or output, the higher the amount produced, the larger the part of it mediocre or substandard. Only a small fraction of stuff is exceptional or truly valuable. Sturgeon’s law is a reminder to filter out the noise. With the understanding that most work is of low quality, we have to aim to identify and work on the best 10 percent. For instance, only a handful of books are worth considering the classics and valuable works, while the rest, while abundant, offer little lasting value. Quality over quantity.

Real-life applications of Sturgeon’s law:

• Creative industries—art, music, literature: the vast majority of creative works, be they books, film, or songs, are not going to receive lasting recognition or leave an impact. Consumers and critics have to sift through vast categories to find creations that will stand the test of time. This is why we have curated platforms, awards, and critical reviews that spotlight excellence for us;

• Scientific research: a significant amount of literature contributes little to the advancement of knowledge. Peer review, replication studies, and meta-analyses help cut through the low-quality studies, ensuring that only robust findings gain prominence;

• Business: many startup ventures or technological products fail to meet expectations. Venture capitalists and investors must critically evaluate businesses and understand that most of them will be utter failures. Rare ventures have transformative potential though;

• Online content: social media platforms like YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and blogs sport mediocre or terrible content the majority of the time. Algorithms and human curation help us discover high-quality gems in the overwhelming jungles of average and substandard posts.

How you might employ Sturgeon’s law as a mental model: (1) set realistic expectations when interacting with content of any type, knowing and being prepared for the fact that most of it will be low quality; (2) develop filtering mechanisms, using tools that identify the best works in any area—such as ratings, expert reviews, or curated lists—to choose the best content for your limited time, like when picking out a movie or book; (3) focus on quality, not quantity, especially as a creator, understanding that more than 90 percent of what is out there—this should drive you to steer for excellence; (4) question the quality of stuff—information, products, research—before accepting it as valuable—do not be swayed by sheer volume or popularity.

The flashy headline could be screwing you over. Sturgeon’s law is a sobering little perspective. Most of what is produced is of mediocre quality. Maybe not crap, but subpar. Not worth our time. It is precisely recognizing this that drives quality-oriented behavior. Seek to consume and create the exceptional. Filter through the noise. Pursue excellence in our sea of average.