Plausible And Possible: The Difference Is Massive, Stupid

The words “plausible” and “possible” are used interchangeably in day-to-day conversation but they are very different. Something “plausible” can happen and you can make a valid case that it will. Whereas something “possible” means it could happen but the likelihood is much lower. Using them without regard for these differences can convey the opposite of what you intend. Originally, “plausible” was used to describe a person that was agreeable or praiseworthy; something that appeared to be true, at least on the surface. But “possible” has always been used to indicate something capable of being true. What is “possible” can be. What is “plausible” sounds reasonable, but might be impossible.

If a story is said to be plausible, it is likely to be true, but not necessarily. When the government announces that a bomb is a plausible explanation for a crash, this indicates the explanation to be acceptable, but not the only possible explanation. The difference is like between something that is valid and something that is true. What appears valid is convincing, but it could prove untrue. If a cure for a disease is said to be possible, this indicates that there is potential for the cure. Only unless you have proof of the contrary, this is true. Know the difference. Communicate better.

Its a contrast between believability and logical probability. Plausible emphasizes how convincing or credible an idea is: about whether something “sounds right” given what you know. Possible focuses on whether something can occur, even if it seems unlikely or counterintuitive. It is possible (logically conceivable) for humans to colonize mars. However, whether colonization is plausible depends on current technology, resource availability, and timelines. Plausible claims garner a higher degree of confidence since they align well with existing evidence. A claim being possible only tells you that it isn’t impossible; it doesn’t necessarily mean it has strong supporting evidence.

Real life examples of plausible and possible:

• Scientific Discovery: it is possible that extraterrestrial life exists somewhere in the universe, since nothing in physics rules it out. It becomes plausible if multiple discoveries, such as the presence of water, organic molecules, and habitable conditions, converge on one planet.

• Technological Innovation: it is possible to develop flying cars, since the concept does not violate fundamental scientific principles. However, given current technological, regulatory, and infrastructural challenges, experts would not view flying cars as very plausible in the near future.

• Economic Prediction: a sudden global economic collapse is possible if a few extreme events coincide. But if current economic indicators, regulatory safeguards, and historical data suggest stability, such a collapse is implausible.

• Personal Outcomes: it is possible for someone to win the lottery; not impossible by any logical or physical standard. Yet, given the astronomical odds, winning the lottery isn’t plausible, as it defies statistics even though its in the realm of possibility.

How you can use plausibility and possibility as a mental model: (1) could happen versus likely to — when evaluating claims, separate possibility (logically or physically doable?) from plausibility (aligns well with existing evidence and context?); (2) view claims in context — an idea might be possible in theory but only plausible as evidence accumulates; (3) be mindful of biases — avoid conflating possible with likely, as just because something is doable does not mean it is probable; (4) let data decide — use this model to plan, assess risks, and forecast, ensuring your decisions are based not on what is only possible but also credible; (5) inform others — when presenting an idea or forecast, articulate its possibility and plausibility for a more nuanced picture.