Luck Surface Area: This Is Why Luck Is Nothing Special

According to the author of the concept, Jim Collins, luck surface area is the relationship between hard work and luck in achieving success. It is the amount of exposure an individual or team has to opportunities and resources that result in success. The larger the luck surface area, the greater the likelihood of experiencing luck. Successful individuals, according to Collins, increase their surface area by virtue of hard and smart work, and persistence. The simplest way to put it: we can become great by choice.

We can choose to be luckier by taking actions towards our passion. Luck is rarely a lightning strike. It’s much like the wind, sometimes calm, sometimes blowing in gusts. When we are ready to take it by working hard, taking calculated risks, stepping outside our comfort zone, and sharing what we are doing, we can “catch it”. The key concept is focusing on delivering high-value work, ensuring that when opportunities arise, we are prepared and capable of leveraging them. Actively sharing our work and experiences increases our exposure and the likelihood of our efforts reaching people who act as opportunities.

Luck is, in simple terms, not random. It intersects where effort and exposure meet. A skilled photographer might consistently take great photos and edit them, building their skill and portfolio. Sharing their portfolio on social media, entering competitions, and networking with peers exposes their work to others. All of a sudden, a “random” social media post catches the eye of somebody important and who grants them the opportunity of a lifetime. Nothing was random. The photographer put in the effort—consistently taking photos. They exposed themselves to opportunity—sharing their work. And they were ready to seize the opportunity when it came.

Imagine it like being on a fishing boat in the middle of the ocean. You are alone. What you have with you is a net for catching the fish and a sprinkle of bait. Your one and only goal is to catch as many fish as you can. You can later eat these fish, sell them, and generally anything you wish with the fish. How do you catch as many fish as possible? Here: (1) get a bigger net; (2) position yourself in an area with more fish to catch; (3) persist and keep jabbing at the net. This analogy can be used for any point in life where luck plays a part. Consider (1) and (2) your skill and exposure, and (3) your hard work. You might also view it this way. Luck is a series of random darts. Why not make yourself a bigger target so that luck has an easier time hitting you?

Real life implications of luck surface area:

• Personal brand: building an online portfolio where you share your expertise through posts, talks, podcasts, blogs, videos, will increase your validity as a thought leader, resulting in job offers, speaking gigs, or partnerships;

• Career: networking with your industry while excelling at your job can land you innumerable opportunities, as it demonstrates your competence while making it visible to others ensuring you are on the radar for promotions and offers;

• Entrepreneurship: a startup founder could pitch their ideas to investors over and over again while building a product to attract funding, partnerships, and media coverage, all the while gathering social proof for their project;

• Creative: an artist could showcase their work at galleries, on social media, and by collaborating with others, amplifying their chances of being discovered by a potential buyer, influencer, or organization;

• Relationships: proactively attending social events and work conventions, whilst contributing value in conversations can build your connections and increase your chance of encountering like-minded people;

• Community: participation in local initiatives or volunteering increases your exposure to potential allies, mentors, or collaborators.

How you might use luck surface area as a mental model: (1) focus on mastery, the effort, honing your craft and prioritizing continuous improvement, since quality and consistency ensure you’re ready when an opportunity comes—or walks—your way; (2) increase visibility, the exposure, sharing your work widely across platforms and networks, attending events, engaging in discussions, and cultivating a personal brand to attract collaborators and perhaps deals; (3) be generous with your knowledge, sharing insights, tips, and experiences to build others, developing goodwill and social opportunities; (4) cultivate a mindset geared for improvement, seeing exposure not just as an effort to promote yourself but as a way to connect and provide value to those who need it; (5) leverage technology like social media, blogs, and video sites to scale exposure.

Thought-provoking insights. “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca reminding us of the interplay of effort and exposure. “Fortune favors the bold.” encourages taking initiative and sharing your efforts, beating around the bush does not result in winning anything. “You miss all the shots you don’t take.” is Wayne Gretzky screaming his legendary wisdom about the importance of increasing your exposure. This model should empower you to take an active role. You create your own luck. Align your efforts and exposure. Be prepared to seize it when it comes. Employing the luck surface area lens ensures your hard work does not go unnoticed.