Lindy Effect: The Longer You Live, The Longer You Live

The lindy effect is a theory where the life expectancy of some non-perishable things — technology, ideas — is proportional to their current age. So the longer something has survived, the longer its remaining life expectancy is. This refers to longevity in the form of resistance to change, competition, obsolescence, and overall higher odds of continued existence in the future. Non-perishable items are those which do not have an unavoidable expiration date. Human beings are perishable: life expectancy from birth is around 80 years.

But it does apply to countless other systems. The origin of the term is traced to Albert Goldman’s 1964 article titled Lindy’s law. The term refers to Lindy’s delicatessen in New York, where comedians gathered to conduct show business. In his article, Goldman described how there was a belief among New Yorkers that the amount of material comedians have is constant, and thus their life expectancy is predictable according to their output. He writes that the life expectancy of a television comedian is “inversely proportional to the total amount of his exposure on the medium.”

Many later authors echoed the principle. Nassim Nicholas Taleb incorporated it into his theory of Antrifragility: “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print for another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things have been around for a long time but are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. The longer a non-perishable thing — idea, book, technology, institution — has been around, the longer you can expect it to last.

This works because longevity is an indicator of robustness and relevance for non-perishable things. A book that has been in print for fifty years is likely to sway audiences for many more years, compared to an uncertain, newly published work. Same goes for classical music, ancient philosophies, and enduring technologies like the wheel. They have, ad litteram, withstood the test of time. We trust things that haven’t faded as the sun has risen and fallen innumerable times. Investors favor companies with long track records. Individuals prefer businesses with trusted backgrounds. Good performance then, good performance now.

Real-world examples of the lindy effect:

• Books and Literature: works like Shakespeare’s plays and classical literature have been read and revered for hundreds of years, suggesting they will continue to be significant. Their longevity indicates a timelessness that new publications lack.

• Technology: the QWERTY keyboard layout, originally designed hundreds of years ago, remains in use today despite the existence of more efficient alternatives. Its enduring presence is an example of the lindy effect. Users have found enduring value in it.

• Cultural Practices: long standing institutions like the legal system and democratic governance have evolved over centuries and are likely to persist because they have withstood historical challenges. Their long history provides credibility.

• Business and Branding: companies like Coca-Cola, which have been around for over a century, tend to have enduring brand power and customer trust. Their historical longevity is a marker of continued stability and success.

How you might use the lindy effect as a mental model: (1) care about longevity — when considering an investment or idea, ask how long it has been around, and use that as one of your indicators for potential future viability; (2) prioritize endurance — favor options with a proven track record, especially in culture and business, balancing new ideas with ones that have stood the test of time; (3) take calculated risks — recognize that new, untested options carry higher uncertainty compared to those that have endured, meaning higher possible returns but higher chance of failure; (4) bet on being the fittest — understand that survival over time is about who is the most adaptable, and if you want to benefit from the lindy effect, evolve with changing conditions while retaining your core values.