Fighting The Last War: Why You Do Things The Old Way

Fighting the last war refers to using strategies that worked in the past but aren’t necessarily applicable to the present. It isn’t always foolish to do so when technology is stable. In a world where firearms barely changed over people’s lifetimes, Alexander, Hannibal, Caesar, and the Duke of Wellington effectively fought the last war. The only problem is today’s world is evolving at ever-faster rates. Using methods that worked in the past is a serious blunder because in many cases, they are going to be outdated and no longer useful. Old tactics against new weapons is strategic suicide.

There is real evidence that generals fall prey to fighting the last war. This happened in the American Civil War, the Russo-Japanese War, the First World War, and countless other battles. Taking lessons from the last battle is great. But applying olden tactics to new battlefields is how you lead your troop into certain defeat. The conditions of the past — political, technological, and economical — differ significantly from today’s reality. Its inherently comfortable to rely on the familiar. Yet this resistance to change is exactly what results in fighting the last war.

It doesn’t only apply to the military. Organizations and individuals fall prey to the trap just as often. A business might continue using legacy systems or an outdated business model. The reason? It worked before. New methods offer superior performance. Familiarity wins. The context has changed: past solutions are obsolete. It happens at the governmental scale: a state could prepare for traditional forms of warfare (e.g. large-scale troop deployment) when current conflicts are better fought with cyber attacks. At the core, this underlines a fundamental truth: effective problem-solving requires continuously reassessing both the environment and your strategies to fit new conditions. Businesses that adapted to digitization won. Those that clung to old marketing channels faded away.

Real-world instances of fighting the last war:

• Military Strategy: in the early 20th century, military planners based strategies on large, conventional battles of World War I. Some military leaders mistakenly prepared for similar large-scale conflicts even during modern times which involve cyber attacks, drones, and guerilla tactics. This outdated mindset results in inadequate defenses and missed opportunities to counter modern threats.

• Business and Marketing: traditional companies relied on brick-and-mortar stores and print advertising. They were highly effective in previous decades. However, in the digital age, consumers engage more with online content and e-commerce. Thus companies that fail to shift their focus to digital channels die. Businesses that cling to old strategies get outpaced by agile, digitally savvy competitors, eventually reaching the point of collapse.

• Public Policy: policymakers sometimes design regulations based on the conditions of the past. Regulatory frameworks that were designed for an industrial economy struggle to address the complexities of the digital age. This results in ineffective policies. Think of the current education system as a prime example.

• Technology and Innovation: legacy software or hardware systems were built on architectures that served well in earlier eras. Relying on these dinosaur systems instead of adopting modern solutions hinders a company’s ability to compete in a fast-evolving technology-based landscape. Organizations that do not innovate experience operational inefficiencies, their market relevance declines, and ultimately they go bust.

How you can use fighting the last war as a mental model: (1) reevaluate your surroundings — constantly reassess the technological, economical, social, and geopolitical landscape to know if what you are doing is relevant; (2) break “This worked before” thinking — critically examine what you assume about your strategies and explore alternatives; (3) don’t be a dinosaur — invest in research and pivot your strategy when you learn of new, better ways of doing things; (4) try many angles — instead of relying on a single, tried-and-true method, examine multiple ways of doing things (e.g. go from newspaper advertising to podcast sponsorships, Facebook ads, etc.); (5) learn from the past, live in the present, look to the future — analyze historical strategies as a lesson, but adapt these teachings to the modern context.