Clarke's Third Law: When Technology Looks Like Magic

Arthur C. Clarke formulated three adages known as Clarke’s three laws. The third, the best-known and most widely cited, states “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Clarke was a science fiction writer who extensively wrote about the future, hence he had the perfect background for someone forming philosophies about future technology. His holds true though. As we speak, artificial intelligence seems like magic to many of us: many use it, some kind of get it, few understand it, and a very tiny fraction of people genuinely comprehend it.

To take the contrast a bit further, think of how far we’ve come since the beginning of the scientific age some 400 years ago. Back then, the fastest you could travel was 30 or 40 miles per hour. That’s on galloping horse. Now we routinely move at 600 miles per hour in jet planes. Less than a hundred years ago Bell Labs scientists were trying to figure out how to build telephone lines that would allow people to speak across the United States. Today we carry smartphones in our pockets that can reach anybody, anywhere, anytime. The technology we have would certainly seem like magic to people of the past.

The farther back you go, the more extreme this effect becomes. Consider what our ancestors used as their main toolkit. We distinguished ourselves among the many derivatives of great ape species by how well we could use tools. While chimps and birds can wield tools, our ancestors outstripped anything seen in the animal kingdom a million years ago. Technology evolved slowly. That’s the thing about Clarke’s third law. For it to work, we have to not be blinded by the rapid acceleration of technology that took place in these past few hundred years. Our ancestors used sharpened rocks for hundreds of thousands of years. They then attached them onto sticks and used those for many more thousands, and so on. Technological breakthroughs don’t happen in a flash.

It’s not that Clarke’s third law isn’t true, but that during modern times, it’ll mostly apply when observing the past. This is because our technology is already so advanced, it’s not likely that it will move in leaps and bounds. Back when we didn’t have carefully formulated laws of physics and chemistry, experimentation could bring about the unknown. Research really unveiled what seemed like magic. Nowadays experimentation relies on a carefully formulated hypothesis. In other words, we already understand what’s supposedly going to happen and we make a calculated guess before we even begin the experiment. Let’s appreciate the magic that AI seems to be before it bores the hell out of us then.

Real-life examples of Clarke’s third law:

• Smartphones and The Internet: when the first smartphones and the internet emerged, many features — global communication, mobile computing — seemed almost magical compared to traditional tech. Today, we understand how digital networks, software algorithms, and hardware that makes these capabilities possible works.

• Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality: early demonstrations of VR and AR were met with awe. Users first experienced immersive environments. The line between reality and simulation was blurred. As the technology evolved and became accessible however, the “magic” faded.

• Artificial Intelligence: AI systems that can learn, adapt, and make decisions were the stuff of science fiction not too long ago. While still impressive, AI principles are becoming widely understood. The magical appearance is disappearing. Its just a complex interplay of algorithms, lots of data, and a big computer stashed away somewhere.

• Space Exploration: the images and data sent back by the first space probes and telescopes used to be described as otherworldly or magical. Over time, as space science advanced, these phenomena are seen as mundane. Astrophysics have gone above and beyond in explaining how the devices work. Telescopes just zoom into the cosmos. Rockets use lots of fuel to break from the Earth’s atmosphere to get into space.

How you can use Clarke’s third law as a mental model: (1) let the curious child go — when you encounter something inexplicable or magical, consider it an opportunity to dive into the underlying technology, asking “What makes this phenomenon possible?” and try to understand it rather than marveling at the unknown; (2) bridge the gap — use the law to recognize there’s a gap between your current comprehension and advanced technology which you can fill via research; (3) explore the haunted forest — in business or creative endeavors, push the boundaries of convention, investing even into things that seem magical or impossible; (4) communicate to non-experts — when explaining advanced tech to a broad audience, relate it to familiar things like analogies and visual aids to translate the complex ideas into accessible data; (5) magic today, commonplace tomorrow — recognize that what’s inexplicable right now can soon become part of everyday life.